Matt Watson Media

The month of December has become the unofficial starting point of the Major League Baseball free agency period.

The off-season really starts to move during the final month of the year. This makes sense with the season ending towards the last week of October. It gives clubs a chance to evaluate their season, the available talent, and to explore the trade market.

Big-name players such as Juan Soto, Max Fried, and Willy Adames have all signed with new organizations. Players like Kyle Tucker and Cody Bellinger have been traded to new teams, leading a hot trade market. 

With so much action already taking place, it is easy to forget about some of the top talent that remains in free agency. The top player, Corbin Burnes, has seen other starting pitchers sign with potential suitors. Blake Snell signed with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Max Fried with the New York Yankees, and Sean Manaea returned to the New York Mets. Thus far, 22 starting pitchers have signed major league-level contracts. Corbin Burnes, who is arguably the best starting pitcher to hit free agency, is still looking for a suitor. 

Burnes has options, but as time progresses and payrolls fill, the potential list of teams for him to choose from might be dwindling. 

Burnes Back to Baltimore?

Last season, Corbin Burnes had another stellar campaign. This time it was with the Baltimore Orioles, who traded for the starter in the previous off-season. Corbin joined a young Orioles club that was looking to make a deeper playoff push. Unfortunately for Baltimore, their season ended in the same place as the year prior. 

Corbin was dialed in, going 15-9 with a 2.92 earned run average across his 194.1 innings pitched. He finished in fifth place in the American League Cy Young Award voting and went 8 innings in the AL Wild Card game for Baltimore in a game they lost 1-0.

The fit was and remains to be natural between both sides. The Orioles have tremendous depth in their position players but have room to spare when it comes to starting pitching. Bringing back Corbin Burnes slots back in their staff’s ace while also committing to winning moving forward. The Orioles’ new ownership has shown the willingness to spend money on free agent contracts. Corbin could be the first signing in a new era of Baltimore Orioles baseball.

The Field

If Corbin Burnes does not return to Baltimore, there are other teams that are rumored to be interested.

Rumors have circulated that both the Toronto Blue Jays and San Francisco Giants are interested in the veteran right-hander. Both the Giants and Blue Jays missed the postseason in 2024 and are looking to regain status amongst Major League Baseball. 

San Francisco has been in the mix for some big names in recent years. Players like Aaron Judge and Carlos Correa were almost Giants but ultimately landed elsewhere. The club needs to bulk up their roster if they want to compete with the Los Angeles Dodgers, Arizona Diamondbacks, and San Diego Padres. 

Logan Webb currently anchors the starting rotation for San Francisco. Followed by Robbie Ray, Jordan Hicks, Kyle Harrison, and Landen Roupp. While it is a solid group of 5, adding Burnes takes their rotation to a completely different level. Corbin Burnes and Logan Webb would be one of the better 1-2 punches in baseball and give the Giants a chance to compete with the loaded lineups in LA and San Diego.

The Toronto Blue Jays are an interesting option for Corbin Burnes as well. The Jays have been falling in recent years, unable to capitalize on the young talent of their roster. Still led by Vladmir Guerrero Jr., the star power of Toronto has dimmed. The Blue Jays did recently acquire infielder Andres Gimenez from the Cleveland Guardians to bolster their club. 

Signing Corbin Burnes would not make Toronto a playoff team, but it would move them closer. For Burnes, he would have to understand and commit to the retooling from a former rival in the division. Adding Corbin would not only make the team better but potentially entice Vlad to sign a long-term extension. The star first baseman is likely to hit free agency at season’s end.

The Decision

Whether the Giants, Blue Jays, or others make a move for Corbin Burnes, I expect him to return to the Baltimore Orioles. 

The O’s cannot afford to let their best pitcher walk out the door, especially with a division rival in the hunt. Without Corbin, the Orioles will have to rely heavily on their current starting options and then make a splash at the trade deadline. Their offense should be strong and explosive again in 2025, but pitching is what will ultimately bring them closer to a World Series championship.

If and when he signs a contract, I expect Corbin Burnes to ink a deal in the $250 million range. With Max Fried getting 7 years in a contract with the Yankees, I would believe Burnes gets at least 6, if not 7 years on a contract as well. He is younger and more accomplished than his free agent counterpart in New York.

Photograph by Tim Gouw